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Forecast quality in the supply chain (325 KB)
Recent research (published for the first time in this article) reveals that many forecasting methods fail to add any value at all - with up to 50% of forecasts failing to beat even a simple "naive" forecast, where last period's actual becomes the forecast for the next period.
A comparative analysis of 24 different forecasting methods, reveals just how poorly they perform against a simple naïve forecast. The implication is that investing in smarter techniques/software alone does not guarantee success; rigorous measurement at a granular level (e.g. by ForecastQT™) is essential to accelerate the "time to value" from these investments. [First published in Foresight magazine, Winter 2014]
How "good" can a forecast be? (280 KB)
A new approach to measuring forecasting performance. Allowing for ‘forecastability’ and defining the practical limits of forecast improvement allows forecast quality to be measured and compared objectively and the scope for improvement to be quantified. These findings will help practitioners to manage and improve their forecast processes with greater ease and impact. [First published in Summer 2013]
Navigating in turbulent times (94 KB)
The quality of forecasts used by most businesses to steer their performance is unacceptably poor. This article sets out what needs to be done to remedy this in six straightforward steps.
Forecasters need a broader perspective on their craft and its corporate role if they want to make the kind of contribution companies now demand, as they struggle with increasing levels of volatility. [First published in Foresight magazine]
Five business forecasting tricks (81 KB)
While forecasting is not an exact science, most business forecasts fall well short of any acceptable level of quality. Learn about five important, but often overlooked techniques to help you improve forecasts.
Taking stock: assessing the TRUE cost of forecast errors, by Paul Goodwin. [First published in Foresight magazine, Fall 2009.]
A two part paper, offering guiding principles on organisational forecast processes. Part 1: offers guiding principles on Foundation and Design
A two part paper, offering guiding principles on organisational forecast processes. Part 2: offers guiding principles on Process, Behaviour, Maintenance and Improvement.
Forecast Accuracy Measurement (357 KB)
Another Foresight magazine article which aims to answer the frequently asked question; "How can we identify our best opportunities to improve forecast accuracy?"